Today's Electoral Vote Predictor is interesting Current Electoral Vote Prediction

What I find most striking about this chart is the numbers in D.C.... D.C. is significant because it is the nation's capital, and home to the politicking.

Kerry 78%

Bush 11%

Nader 6%

First the Kerry number. D.C. prefers Kerry more than any state, by far. The next highest figure for Kerry is New York with 58%, then RI and MD with 56%.

Then the Bush number. Bush has less support in D.C. than any state, by a wide margin. The next lowest number is 35% in New York, then 36% in MA and RI.

Lastly, Nader. Nader has more support in D.C. than any state, although Alaska is a close second with 5%, then UT, CT and HA with 4%.

My conclusion...

D.C. has 20 years of experience with Kerry, more if you include his activist years, and yet he has their overwhelming support. Hardly someone the public think has been ineffective and untrustworthy.

In 4 years with Bush (and another 4 with his father, if that's significant), D.C. is hoping to get rid of him more than any place in the country, and not even by a remotely close margin. They have seen, more closely than anyone what he has done to politics in Washington and they don't like it.

Furthermore, noone wants radical change more than D.C., given their strong support for Nader. D.C. more than any other place seems fed up with the 2 party hegemony, and Nader is the alternative they favour the most. However, a huge proportion of the people intending to vote for change are either strong Democrat supporters or concede that change this year must come from within the 2 party system.

Currently, everything north of D.C. in the east is for Kerry, and everything south is for Bush, with the exception of Florida, which currently is barely leaning towards Kerry. Mind you, I honestly believe Jeb Bush and co. will do whatever it takes to make sure that isn't the end-result.

If you make Florida red, Bush is ahead, so Kerry supporters better not get too full of themselves. If Florida goes to Bush and Ohio goes to Kerry, which is possible if the majority of Nader supporters there vote for Kerry, Kerry still wins with 284 EV.

Also note that Ohio is the ONLY state in which Nader's numbers potentially take away enough votes from Kerry (if and only if you assume Nader supporters would vote for Kerry if Nader wasn't running) to give Bush electoral votes. In Florida, Nader currently does not even show up in the poll. (50% Kerry, 49% Bush, presumably 1% undecided).

So, Kerry better get his kneepads on quickly in Ohio.

Written on October 20, 2004